King U.S. Dollar, Global Risks, and Currency Option Risk Premiums
1 : Federal Reserve Board
(FRB)
We investigate how the primacy of the U.S. dollar affects the pricing of risks in the currency options market. Our findings are based on a daily option panel of 15 currencies. This analysis reveals that (i) put risk premiums are reliably negative, implying across-the-board interest in hedging dollar appreciations; (ii) single-name call risk premiums are both positive and (puzzlingly) negative; (iii) volatility risk premiums are small or insignificant; and (iv) option risk premiums on investment currencies exceed those of funding currencies during high volatility states. We formalize a theory to understand the empirical properties of currency option risk premiums.